Written by Eddie Rogers
Managing Director – CRBN ZERO
info@localhost
According to the Global EV Outlook More than 10 million electric cars were on the world’s roads in 2020 with battery electric models driving the expansion, Electric vehicles are a major infrastructure talking point for policy makers, investors and global leaders, with a heavy focus on decarbonisation and the ability to reduce carbon emissions significantly across the world. Here are some insights to trends within the EV sector and developments that are going to change the way the world commutes.
After a decade of rapid growth, in 2020 the global electric car stock hit the 10 million mark, a 43% increase over 2019, and representing a 1% stock share. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for two-thirds of new electric car registrations and two-thirds of the stock in 2020. China, with 4.5 million electric cars, has the largest fleet, though in 2020 Europe had the largest annual increase to reach 3.2 million.
Overall the global market for all types of cars was significantly affected by the economic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first part of 2020 saw new car registrations drop about one third from the preceding year. This was partially offset by stronger activity in the second-half, resulting in a 16% drop overall year-on-year. Notably, with conventional and overall new car registrations falling, global electric car sales share rose 70% to a record 4.6% in 2020.
About 3 million new electric cars were registered in 2020. For the first time, Europe led with 1.4 million new registrations. China followed with 1.2 million registrations and the United States registered 295 000 new electric cars.
Numerous factors contributed to increased electric car registrations in 2020. Notably, electric cars are gradually becoming more competitive in some countries on a total cost of ownership basis. Several governments provided incentives that buffered electric car purchases from the downturn in car markets.
EUROPE
Overall Europe’s car market contracted 22% in 2020. Yet, new electric car registrations more than doubled to 1.4 million representing a sales share of 10%. In the large markets, Germany registered 395 000 new electric cars and France registered 185 000. The United Kingdom more than doubled registrations to reach 176 000. Electric cars in Norway reached a record high sales share of 75%, up about one-third from 2019. Sales shares of electric cars exceeded 50% in Iceland, 30% in Sweden and reached 25% in the Netherlands.
This surge in electric car registrations in Europe despite the economic slump reflect two policy measures. First, 2020 was the target year for the Europe’s CO2 emissions standard that limit the average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per kilometre driven for new cars. Second, many European increased subsidy scheme for EVs as part of stimulus packages to counter the effects of the pandemic.
In European countries, BEV registrations accounted for 54% of electric car registrations in 2020, continuing to exceed those of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). However, the BEV registration level doubled from the previous year while the PHEV level tripled. The share of BEVs was particularly high in the Netherlands (82% of all electric car registrations), Norway (73%), United Kingdom (62%) and France (60%).
CHINA
The overall car market in China was impacted by the pandemic less than other regions. Total new car registrations were down about 9%.
Registration of new electric cars was lower than the overall car market in the first-half of 2020. This trend reversed in the second-half as China constrained the pandemic. The result was a sales share of 5.7%, up from 4.8% in 2019. BEVs were about 80% of new electric cars registered.
Key policy actions muted the incentives for the electric car market in China. Purchase subsidies were initially due to expire at the end of 2020, but following signals that they would be phased out more gradually prior to the pandemic, by April 2020 and in the midst of the pandemic, they were instead cut by 10% and extended through 2022. Reflecting economic concerns related to the pandemic, several cities relaxed car licensing policies, allowing for more internal combustion engines vehicles to be registered to support local car industries.
UNITED STATES
The US car market declined 23% in 2020, though electric car registrations fell less than the overall market. In 2020, 295 000 new electric cars were registered, of which about 78% were BEVs, down from 327 000 in 2019. Their sales share nudged up to 2%. Federal incentives decreased in 2020 due to the federal tax credits for Tesla and General Motors, which account for the majority of electric car registrations, reaching their limit.
OTHER COUNTRIES
EV markets in other countries were resilient in 2020. For example, in Canada the new car market shrunk 21% while new electric car registrations were broadly unchanged from the previous year at 51 000.
New Zealand is a notable exception. In spite of its strong pandemic response, it saw a decline of 22% in new electric car registrations in 2020, in line with a car market decline of 21%. The decline seems to be largely related to exceptionally low EV registrations in April 2020 when New Zealand was in lockdown.
Another exception is Japan, where the overall new car market contracted 11% from the 2019 level while electric car registrations declined 25% in 2020. The electric car market in Japan has fallen in absolute and relative terms every year since 2017, when it peaked at 54 000 registrations and a 1% sales share. In 2020, there were 29 000 registrations and a 0.6% sales share.
Electric cars had a record year in 2020, with Europe overtaking China as the biggest market
CONSUMER SPENDING
Consumers spent USD 120 billion on electric car purchases in 2020, a 50% increase from 2019, which breaks down to a 41% increase in sales and a 6% rise in average prices. The rise in average prices reflects that Europe, where prices are higher on average than in Asia, accounted for a bigger proportion of new electric car registrations. In 2020, the global average BEV price was around USD 40 000 and around USD 50 000 for a PHEV.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING
Governments across the world spent USD 14 billion on direct purchase incentives and tax deductions for electric cars in 2020, a 25% rise year-on-year. Despite this, the share of government incentives in total spending on EVs has been on a downward slide from roughly 20% in 2015 to 10% in 2020.
An important novelty in subsidy schemes was the introduction of price caps in Europe and China, i.e. no subsidy given for vehicles with prices above a certain threshold. This might be responsible for average electric car price falling in Europe and China: BEV cars sold in China were 3% cheaper in 2020 than in 2019, while PHEV cars in Europe were 8% cheaper.
While most charging of EVs is done at home and work, roll-out of publicly accessible charging will be critical as countries leading in EV deployment enter a stage where simpler and improved autonomy will be demanded by EV owners. Publicly accessible chargers reached 1.3 million units in 2020, of which 30% are fast chargers. Installation of publicly accessible chargers was up 45%, a slower pace than the 85% in 2019, likely because work was interrupted in key markets due to the pandemic. China leads the world in availability of both slow and fast publicly accessible chargers.
SLOW CHARGERS
The pace of slow charger (charging power below 22 kW) installations in China in 2020 increased by 65% to about 500 000 publicly accessible slow chargers. This represents more than half of the world’s stock of slow chargers.
Europe is second with around 250 000 slow chargers, with installations increasing one-third in 2020. The Netherlands leads in Europe with more than 63 000 slow chargers. Sweden, Finland and Iceland doubled their stock of slow chargers in 2020.
Installation of slow chargers in the United States increased 28% in 2020 from the prior year to total 82 000. The number of slow chargers installed in Korea rose 45% in 2020 to 54 000, putting it in second place.
FAST CHARGERS
The pace of fast charger (charging power more than 22 kW) installations in China in 2020 increased by 44% to almost 310 000 fast chargers, slower than the 93% pace of annual growth in 2019. The relatively high number of publicly available fast chargers in China is to compensate for a paucity of private charging options and to facilitate achievement of goals for rapid EV deployment.
In Europe, fast chargers are being rolled out at a higher rate than slow ones. There are now more than 38 000 public fast chargers, up 55% in 2020, including nearly 7 500 in Germany, 6 200 in the United Kingdom, 4 000 in France and 2 000 in the Netherlands. The United States counts 17 000 fast chargers, of which nearly 60% are Tesla superchargers. Korea has 9 800 fast chargers.
Publicly accessible fast chargers facilitate longer journeys. As they are increasingly deployed, they will enable longer trips and encourage late adopters without access to private charging to purchase an electric vehicle.
CRBN ZERO CONSENSUS
EV Charging is a force to be reconned with, the sheer determination of global countries to electrify their fleets has determined global investors, manufacturers and startups to develop strategies to tackle climate change by reducing vehicle emissions. To truly undertake sustainability within EV charging is to implement this solution into a renewable energy solution which integrates solar and battery storage to offer a complete green solution to your business.
CRBN ZERO does just that, our project managers and engineers develop plans to assist you in developing a full scale EV charging solution for your business, futureproofing its existence in a fast paced renewable world. We design EV charging Hubs, Convert old petrol stations to EV stations and develop strategy to implement and integrate EV into your business. We partner with some of the worlds leading EV charging manufacturers and develop a concise plan based on your requirements. Contact a member of our EV Enablement team to discuss how we can help you.