Written by Eddie Rogers
Managing Director CRBN ZERO ltd.
13th October 2021
Despite the many challenges we faced in 2020, solar PV has continued to achieve record installations at international scale. Globally, approximately 138 GW of solar was deployed in 2020, and installations are projected to exceed 180 GW in 2021.
With the end of summer and investment showing no sign of slowing down, CRBN ZERO have analysed several trends that will determine the projections for solar power in 2021.
SOLAR PRICING AND PRODUCTION
Crystalline silicon (c-SI) mainly monocrystalline PV module technology continues to dominate the market and has experienced rapid technological developments which led to significant reductions in cost, albeit the transportation concerns faced within supply chain in 2021, solar prices have remained reasonable and the developments and advancement in technology astounding.
The increasing use of the more efficient passivated emitter and rear contact (PERC) cells has aided the rapid uptake of bifacial modules, which offer an increase in energy yield. Bifacial modules enable light to enter the cells from both the front and back of the module. While this bifacial gain is modest for sites in relatively low-irradiance regions, such as the UK and Ireland, 2021 has been the year where we’ve seen the vast majority of developers fully commit to bifacial technology. The addition of utilising copper in the production cycle has also proven to be a substantial development as copper is more abundant and yields a much more efficient and cost effective solution for solar panels.
Furthermore, solar modules are benefitting from developments in cell interconnection due to the development of multi-busbars (MBB) and half cut cells. Both technologies allow improved module configurations and reduce resistance losses and manufacturing costs, integrate this solution with panel optimisers and your solution is self sufficient, income generating, utility cost reducing and a substantial improvement to your business.
In addition to improved module efficiencies, manufacturers are increasingly shifting towards the use of physically larger cell and module formats, which can reduce balance of plant costs. As leading module manufacturers are starting to ship modules with a power rating of 600 W and above, developers are starting to routinely assess these large-format modules for their solar projects. It will be interesting to see to what extent production capacities for much-hyped modules such as the JA Solar 800 W Jumbo, Tongwei 780 W and Trina Solar 670W Vertex models can keep up with ever-growing demand.
Future exciting modules relating to cell architecture include the use of tandem cells that combine different semiconductors to convert different parts of the light spectrum, with the perovskite solar cell showing the greatest promise. Reported research results show that cell efficiencies using tandem architecture are approaching 30%, which commercially available solar technology does not currently achieve.
The increase in module prices is due to a complex combination of factors, including polysilicon supply bottlenecks, rising raw materials prices and higher freight rates due to Covid-19 impacts. While there’s a general consensus that module prices will continue to drop in the medium and long term, we expect to see this increased pricing volatility continue into 2022 with the market offering potential leniency towards the end of the year.
THE AGE OF DECARBONISATION
An emerging trend is pairing solar with complementary products, such as battery storage systems like CH+RGED Power Storage, EV Charging and air source heat pumps which has become a form of competitive advantage that can be powered by solar power. This movement toward solar integration makes sense, if you install a solar panel system, you’ll want to get the most out of it and take advantage of reducing power usage by shifting to renewable sources of energy. Greater electrification helps to increase your solar savings, as it allows the electricity produced by your solar system to stretch further, lowering the cost you pay to power your various devices. This is also a major incentive to increase awareness of corporate social responsibility and your care as a business for the environment, as electrification plus solar will significantly reduce your carbon emissions and assist with developing a strategy for carbon emission reporting.
We expect this trend to continue growing in 2021, as EVs continue to proliferate and as more business owners add storage, in particular, to their solar installations. Few solar companies offer all, or even most, of these additional technologies, however CRBN ZERO offer a complete consultation on the design, installation, integration and utility provision ensuring all avenues of your business are covered.
CO-LOCATION INSTALLATION
While hybrid projects aren’t new, 2021 has seen a ramp-up in developers and asset owners who are looking to combine wind, solar and storage technologies on one site, called co location installation. There are a number of reasons why co-location can be attractive, such as making the most of a grid connection, saving infrastructure costs and adding an element of flexibility to the asset owners inventory. The latter is particularly relevant in markets where high penetration of renewables is starting to result in low or even negative electricity prices at times when wind and solar output is high – the so-called capture price risk.
Solar and storage remains by far the most common pairing, with the majority of solar planning applications in mature markets like the UK now containing provision for battery storage containers to be added, CRBN ZERO have effectively evaluated this and offer opportunity to install both on property across the UK.
At the same time, many wind farm asset owners are looking for ways to augment their ageing sites and co-locating solar capacity can be an attractive option if the terrain allows, however many have seen challenges encompassing both the sheer amount of land required for a large scale solar installation and the lack of knowledge in being able to track the various assets output without a clear strategy or solution. The complementary nature of the wind and solar resource is well understood, but the challenge arises when it comes to designing a hybrid site. Tower shading, crane pads and access routes all need to be considered when determining where solar panels could be placed amongst a wind farm. We’ve even been helping developers assess the risk of a solar array impacting the wind profile at rotor height due to heating effects.
Finally, the market is starting to seriously struggle with long-duration storage as a way of decarbonising industrial processes and certain transport applications.
For 2022, we expect more hybrid projects to move from the feasibility phase into detailed design and execution. And with Li-ion batteries facing long lead times in a normal scenario, CRBN ZERO can source and build container battery storage units through its partners at CH+RGED Power Storage, considering the shortage we have no limitations to providing a solution for businesses, solar farms and wind farms looking to integrate the technology we will be watching alternative technologies such as Zinc-ion closely as this could also provide another solution for battery storage technologies.
MARKET GROWTH
The United Kingdom solar power market is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 5% during the forecast period of 2020-2025. Factors such as encouraging government policies and pressure to meet power demand using renewable energy to decrease dependency on fossils to decrease carbon footprints are significant contributors to the growth of the market.
The declining costs of solar technologies (elbeit the increase in cost due in the first half of 2021 due to shipping constraints) are becoming competitive with fossil fuel sources, and additional subsidies on solar systems are driving the solar power market further. On the other hand, factors such as absence of any new initiatives and the fight over land large enough to install a full solar array that would reap generous returns are causing a few hurdles in the sector that still remain a hindrance on the sector.
Solar PV projects at utility-scale have been growing in the entire United Kingdom, with incredible and unrelenting force across the globe. Many ambitious photovoltaic projects are lined up in the forecast period that will be driving the solar market in the coming years, the time to invest in a scale solar project is now to take advantage of massive rewards, CRBN ZERO and its partners have capability to source land, design and build a project from inception and along with our architects and engineers install, maintain and deliver a highly profitable solution for your venture. Look at solar this way, to pay off the project you could be looking at 7 to 10 years, the lifespan of the solar investment is on average 25 years, your capital investment will return 15 years of pure profit at a minimum.
According to a report by Solar Trade Association, solar power installed capacity can reach more than 25000 MW by the end of 2030. Such estimated growth will create vast opportunities for solar power market players.
The introduction of Feed-in Tariff (FIT) provided a boost to solar installations till mid-2019. Later with an increment of VAT from 5% to 20% on Photovoltaic solar panels, the growth can be hampered, tap into the super tax incentive to reduce the cost by an additional 24.7% and any investor looking to enter the sector will be offered with a solution far too lucrative to pass up. Contact a member of our team if you are looking to invest in a solar project. (Capital is not at risk with these projects)